Monday, November 3, 2008

Biggest Slowdown Since 1929

By Don Bethune

The rapid growth of telecommunication with the emerge of IT industry has kept the GDP and different growth parameters steep rising post 1990s.However far beyond the imaginations and expectations of researchers, experts, analyst across the globe the recent turmoil in credit market, banking sector in the banks of USA, European and few Asian banks are the largest since 1929.

The somewhat grim financial situation we now find ourselves in indicates a strong need to redefine existing economic and financial models. It is too early to tell when or whether financial rescue packages recently put in place will turn the economies of the USA, Europe and Asia around. Initially these bailout packages have done little to stop the slide in stock indexes.

It seems strange that the collapse of several major financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers came as such a surprise. Hindsite shows that there were plenty of danger signals which if heeded may have prevented this major problem. The business model of Lehman Brothers, their lending practices, and their operating practices, if attended to and revised at an earlier time may have saved the company and kept employees and shareholders holding a bag containing precious little.

The question has to be asked as to what if anything financial institutions have learned from this experience. Will they accept the bailout packages and continue with business as usual or will they use this financial assistance to buy time enough to redefine and retool their business models? This would seem imperative if we are to experience solid and sustainable economic growth once again.

Ironically at the present juncture economies like China and US who always stand Back to Back have without joining their had are trying their level best to save their economy which in turn, though un-intentional is helping other countries to recover from the same.

The question arises here is how long and how many times a country or banks would be able to prevent these debacle? Is our strategy of investment or portfolio being adopted is healthy enough to promise a sustainable growth rate. Surprisingly the recent G7 meeting couldn't find out feasible solutions.

Instead of finding out all these hook and crook at the time of turmoil political leaders of prosperous and responsible nations should sit together to decide strategies, which can prevent such collapses in future. IF incase these solutions doesn't crop up from them then small investors should be careful while making any decision in putting their money in.

We may feel sometimes that a plunge in the stock market affects only the major stockholders, the "big boys". It is not always apparent that a decline in the stock market means that companies issuing stock suddenly find themselves with insufficient capital to meet their goals. The results can mean decreased production, lower wages, and lost jobs. Eventually these negatives can and will affect the average citizen. As a part of any recovery package the average citizen needs to be educated as to what the big picture means to him or her.

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